Letter to the New York Times 9/27/2001 

An Oil War Coming? 

By Greg Moses 

Paul Krugman, in a New York Times column Wednesday (Sept. 26) insists that, 
"this is not a war on behalf of the oil companies; it's not even a war on 
behalf of S.U.V.'s and McMansions." The coming oil war, says Krugman, is 
over a natural resource that is more vital than any corporation's profits 
or anyone's luxurious consumption. Oil, argues Krugman, is a national 
priority. 

"It's true that oil is part of the backstory to the terrorist attack," 
concedes Krugman. And oil is a "flashpoint" on the strategic field before 
us. But Krugman asks us not to bicker amongst ourselves about whose oil is 
at stake, because everyone needs it now. Krugman is getting ready for war, 
and he urges a unified war effort. So the war is not about elite oil, says 
Krugman, it's about our oil. 

If this is a war about my oil, however, there are a few questions I want to 
ask. 

First of all, I want to know at what point did it become an oil war? I 
heard it was a war for freedom, then a war against terrorism, and later a 
war for justice. Now Krugman assures me this is a war about my oil. 

Second, I want to know why this war was declared within a week of the 
announcement that Chevron and Texaco had been cleared for merger by the 
Federal Trade Commission. "ChevronTexaco will have a combined enterprise 
market value of more than $100 billion, assets of $83 billion, net proved 
reserves of 11.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent (BOE), daily production 
of 2.7 million BOE and operations throughout the world," boasts the press 
release of Sept. 7. 

Among the global assets counted in the ChevronTexaco merger is a 45 percent 
interest in 9 billion barrels of reserves in the Tengiz oil field of 
Kazakhstan, not very far from Afghanistan. ExxonMobil owns a 25 percent 
interest in the Tengiz field, bringing total US shares to 70 percent of the 
recoverable reserves. The Center for Public Integrity reports the area has 
been of longstanding interest to Vice President Dick Cheney who once served 
on the Kazakhstan Oil Advisory Board, along with executives from Chevron 
and Texaco. 

As the reflexes of US power flex toward Central Asia during this national 
emergency, I want to be clear about the interests that direct them. If 
this is an oil war, why don't they tell us? 

Third, I want to know if the rapid transformation of this war into an oil 
war is connected to the fact that Afghanistan's outlaw government has been 
blocking plans for a pipeline that would move Central Asia's oil and gas to 
the coast of the Arabian Sea. 

According to a Department of Energy report that was posted on the web in 
December, 2000: "Afghanistan's significance from an energy standpoint stems 
from its geographical position as a potential transit route for oil and 
natural gas exports from Central Asia to the Arabian Sea." But 
Afghanistan's potential as a pipeline country lies unfulfilled. As the DOE 
report explains, "Unocal had previously stressed that the Centgas pipeline 
project would not proceed until an internationally recognized government 
was in place in Afghanistan." 

"Besides the gas pipeline," says the DOE report, "Unocal also had 
considered building a 1,000-mile, 1-million barrel-per-day (bbl/d) capacity 
oil pipeline that would link Chardzou, Turkmenistan to Pakistan's Arabian 
Sea Coast via Afghanistan. Since the Chardzou refinery is already linked to 
Russia's Western Siberian oil fields, this line could provide a possible 
alternative export route for regional oil production from the Caspian Sea. 
The $2.5-billion pipeline is known as the Central Asian Oil Pipeline 
Project. For a variety of reasons, including high political risk and 
security concerns, however, financing for this project remains highly 
uncertain." 

For the moment, I have one more question to ask. I want to know why a top 
American defense official meeting with NATO defense ministers earlier this 
week was unable to say who has been identified as mastermind of the World 
Trade Center massacre of Sept. 11. This puzzles me, because the top 
defense minister in the United States has been telling me for nearly two 
weeks that he knows who is behind the attack and that he has evidence in 
hand. This is the same evidence, presumably, that will soon be used to 
justify our new war for oil. 

Our President warned us that the war to come would be a different kind of 
war, but I wonder. Indeed, as Paul Krugman has been helpful to warn us, 
this war is beginning to look like an old-fashioned war for oil. 

See peace links at: http://911.gregmoses.net 
greg.moses@marist.edu 
Philosophy 
Marist College 
Poughkeepsie, NY 12601 
http://philosophy.gregmoses.net 
845-575-3000 x2217